Dow Jones Futures Fall: Is Uptrend More Than Bear Market Rally; Apple Leads 4 Dow Stocks In Focus

Dow Jones futures fell slightly Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally held last week’s support level. Now, could the S&P 500 move above its 200-day moving average in the coming days and weeks? Apple ( AAPL ) could be key.


Apple stock held key levels and rose modestly as the overall market retreated. Like the S&P 500, the tech titan iPhone is returning to its 200-day line. A decisive move above this level could offer a buying opportunity. But another rejection could offer another chance to short AAPL stock.

Meanwhile, fellow Dow Jones components Boeing (BA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and GS stocks have been quietly on significant runs over the past several weeks, contributing to the Dow’s best performance in the current market rally. Stock BA technically is right around a traditional buy point. Goldman Sachs (GS) is forging a deep base while JPM stock still has work to do.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.25% against fair value. S&P 500 futures declined 0.25%. Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.2%.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 3.8%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened sharply lower. Hong Kong leader John Yee tested positive for Covid after returning from the APEC summit.

Remember that overnight actions in Dow futures and elsewhere do not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

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Stock market rally analysis

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose less than 0.1% in stock market trading last week. The S&P 500 index declined 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite fell 1.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 yielded 1.75%.

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On Tuesday, November 15, the S&P 500 briefly topped 4,000, getting close to its 200-day moving average. This level is especially important because the benchmark index turned back just 1 point from the 200-day line on August 16, resulting in another leg of the bear market.

A decisive move above the 200-day line, which would also roughly coincide with a downtrend from the January 4 all-time high, would be a powerful signal that the uptrend is more than a bear market rally.

The S&P 500 clearing the 200-day line would also be a positive sign for the leading stocks, which are struggling near buy points amid a choppy market.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 fell below its 200-day line last week, but would likely regain that level ahead of the S&P 500. The Dow Jones, supported by shares of Boeing, Goldman and JPM, is comfortably higher 200 days. But clearing highs last week would bring the Dow back to 34,000 and just below its August peak.

The Nasdaq, weighed down by aggressive growth, is 8.3% below the 200-day line. Moving above last week’s high would be a good first step. Also a positive: The 21-day moving average just edged above the 50-day line on Friday.

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Thanksgiving week isn’t necessarily a great time for a big market move. Markets are closed on Thanksgiving and a half-day session on Friday. Volume will likely light during the week. Next week ends with a bang. On December 1, investors will get October PCE inflation data, along with the November ISM manufacturing index. On December 2, the November work report is due. This news could have a major impact on Fed rate hike expectations, bond yields and stock prices.

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So it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the major indexes trade in a range over the next week or so. There is nothing wrong with a little consolidation for the major indices and leading stocks.

Apple stock

Apple shares rose 1.1% last week to 151.29, after 8.2% in the previous week. Shares held their 50-day moving average, and the 21-day line was set to surpass the 50-day. AAPL stock is only modestly below its 200-day line. The Dow giant flirted with its 200 day on October 28 earnings. But that turned out to be a great opportunity to short, with shares falling within days to their worst close since mid-June.

A decisive move above the 200-day line, perhaps clearing the October 28 high at 157.50, would offer an early entry into a lower base starting on August 17. And if Apple stock reverses lower in this area, it could give a new one. short opportunity.

Apple’s success or failure at the 200-day line could be key to the S&P 500’s own attempts, and vice versa.

Stock Boeing

BA stock fell 2% to 173.89, after a 47% run over five weeks. While the aerospace giant Dow Jones reversed lower on Oct. 26 on earnings, shares rebounded, especially on an upbeat cash flow guidance a few days later.

Technically, Boeing stock is just below the 173.95 cup-basis buy point. But shares are 9.5% above their 200-day line and 19.5% above their 50-day. Pauses around current levels could create a safer buying opportunity.

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Boeing expects to turn a profit in 2023, ending four years of losses.

Goldman Stock

GS stock slipped 1.55% to 379.20 last week. On a daily chart, shares extended from a 358.72 cup-basis buy point to a larger consolidation. On a weekly chart, Goldman shares have a 389.68 buy point from a one-year cup-and-handle basis, according to MarketSmith analysis. But after a 28% gain over a four-week winning streak, it’s a very small handle. A longer and deeper handle would be helpful, and let the 50-day line close the gap.

The relative strength line is at a four-year high, reflecting the performance of Goldman stock against the S&P 500. The RS line is the blue line in the given chart.

Stock JPM

JPMorgan stock dipped 1.1% to 133.84 last week. This is after a 29.5% advance over six weeks. Stocks are above the 50-day and 200-day lines, but have work to do. JPM stock could be building the right side of a long, deep consolidation, or it could be forging a bottom base.

Read the Big Picture every day to stay connected with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

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