SSDs have replaced hard disk drives (HDDs) when it comes to performance, but whether building a network-attached storage (NAS) or having large capacity needs on a budget, many people still rely on a spinning plate. Older drives that have seen a lot of use, however, may not be as reliable as they used to be. Data Backblaze shared this week highlights how a hard drive’s average failure rate (AFR) can increase with age.
Since 2013, Backblaze, a backup and cloud storage company, has published an annual report analyzing the AFRs of hard drives in its data center. The 2022 report shared on Tuesday examines 230,921 hard drives across 29 models from HGST, Seagate, Toshiba, and WDC, with capacities ranging from 4–16TB. All models include at least 60 drives that have not been used for testing before.
Keep in mind that the sample group only contains the drives that Backblaze has, and they are of various ages, some used more days than others. However, the Backblaze report gives us a different look at the effects of long-term hard drive usage.
In case you need a reminder of the bad timing, Backblaze’s report shows evidence of the AFR of hard drives increasing with age. It’s not surprising news, but Backblaze provides data to paint a picture of what that looks like.
Backblaze’s analysis of its findings states that the graph below “shows that older drives, when grouped by size, fail more often.”
Note that the 6TB and 10TB samples only include one drive model each, while the others have at least four each.
Backblaze noted that the increase in AFR as the HDD ages is consistent with the bathtub curve, where failures tend to be higher when released before falling, stabilizing, and then increasing as the product ages. Backblaze said the average failure rate of hard drives was 1.01 percent in 2021 and 1.37 percent in 2022.
“The aging of our hard drive fleet seems to be the most reasonable reason for the AFR increase in 2022. We could continue to hold back, but that’s probably not good at this point,” the Backblaze blog said.
The oldest (average age of 92.5 months) hard drive Backblaze tested was a 6TB Seagate (ST6000DX000). Its AFR was 0.11 percent in 2021 and 0.68 percent in 2022. Backblaze said this is “a very respectable number at any time, but especially after nearly eight years.”
Seagate, followed by Toshiba, tops Backblaze’s chart of AFRs by vendor, but most of the Seagate drives are older than the other drives tested.
“In general, Seagate drives are less expensive and their failure rates tend to be higher in our area,” Backblaze said. “However, their failure rates are generally not high enough to make them cost-effective over their lifetime. You can make a good case that, many Seagate drive models are not as cost-effective as the more expensive drives.”
